With a major standoff between two of the most powerful nations in the world, the big question started to arise: are we experiencing a new Cold War? During an interview with former Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev by Time Magazine, the simple answer of “[i]ndeed we are,” was given. “People are talking again not only about a new Cold War but a hot one…it’s as if a time of great troubles has arrived,” added the former statesman.
A report published by the European Leadership Network entitled “Dangerous brinkmanship: close military encounters between Russia and the West in 2014” detailed roughly 40 “high risk” incidents between the Russian military and the West. “[These incidents] show a dangerous game of brinkmanship is being played… in what is now the most serious security crisis in Europe since the Cold War,” says the report’s authors Thomas Frear, Lukasz Kulesa and Ian Kearns. Some of the incidents included in the report were the abduction of an Estonian security service operative, an incident where Russian military aircraft had approached within 50 miles of the Californian coast – the closest military flight since the Cold War, and a Swedish hunt for a suspected Russian submarine in the waters of the Stockholm archipelago, the biggest anti-submarine operation in Sweden since the Cold War.
When asked whether this diplomatic situation could be referred to as a new Cold War, US embassy spokesperson Jack Hillmeyer told Perdeby that “[the US has] no intention of returning to a Cold War relationship with Russia,” but echoed US Vice-President Joe Biden in saying that “President Putin [had] to make a simple, stark choice: Get out of Ukraine or face continued isolation and growing economic costs at home.” Hillmeyer also said that it was Russia who had “precipitated the current crisis in Ukraine.”
Prof. Roland Henwood of UP’s department of political sciences disagrees with the current diplomatic situation being called a new Cold War. Prof. Henwood says that both the current diplomatic situation and the global system are different. “There have been so many changes since the end of the Cold War, it is going to be very difficult to argue that this is basically replicating what happened in the past – there are too many differences,” he added. According to Prof. Henwood, the current diplomatic situation should not be referred to as a new Cold War but rather as “strained relations between Russia, the European Union and the United States of America.”
When asked about the new Cold War issue, Alexander Firsov, press attache councellor of the embassy of the Russian Federation in Pretoria, referred Perdeby to Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov’s speech at the 51st Munich Security Conference on 7 February 2015. In his speech, Lavrov confirmed that the recent events referring to diplomatic relations have “taken a turn, which is far from optimistic.” However, Lavrov added that it was impossible to agree, as mentioned by some colleagues, that there was a sudden collapse of world order, once again referring to the recent deterioration of diplomatic relations.
On 2 February 2015, NewsWeek.com reported that Nato had ranked Russia as its greatest threat and had plans to staff six new bases in Europe. It also quoted Nato’s secretary general Jens Stoltenberg, calling the new plans “the biggest reinforcement of [Nato’s] collective defence since the end of the Cold War.”
The speculation does not stop there. According to an article by Michael Snyder on GlobalReseach.ca, there are many who believe that the US is colluding with Saudi Arabia to drive down global oil prices in an effort to harm the Russian economy. Business Insider’s 2013 statistics show that crude oil exports make up a significant 33% of the Russian economy. During a televised speech, Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro accused the US of having planned the decrease in global oil prices as a conspiracy intended to “destroy Russia”.
Although such a confrontation should not be casually labeled as a new Cold War, and even if the current standoff is not considered as such, it does strongly support Joseph Rotblat’s statement that “the Cold War is over but Cold War thinking survives.” Whether we are experiencing a new Cold War or not, people must remember to ask themselves this: was the Cold War called the Cold War during the Cold War?
Image: Hendro van der Merwe
