We have all seen the memes: Jonas Brothers reunion? Recession indicator. Tradwife aesthetic making a comeback? Recession indicator. But is there any truth to it? Do trends in the public sphere indicate an economic depression? Survey says… maybe.
Let’s take a look at skirts. If you walk into a clothing store that is busy rolling out their summer collection, you might notice that there seems to be an excess of long clothing. In particular, midi (mid-calf) and maxi (ankle-length) skirts have returned as a trend. This is not a new concept and is a cycle that fashion seems to go through, like most trends. The interesting part comes when you look at when the cycle turns or repeats itself. There seems to be a correlation between the length of your skirt and the general economic state of the country.
Economist George Taylor hypothesised that a long skirt indicated hard times financially while shorter lengths signalled prosperity. The theory suggested that when money is short, people tend to purchase clothing that is more practical and versatile. Because there are more occasions to wear a long skirt than a shorter one, fashion houses are able to sell more midi and maxi skirts, therefore helping with the financial struggles of the time. This is often paired with narratives around modesty and conservatism. When money is short, people will take any job they can get and don’t want to do anything to harm their chances of getting hired. This means a return to neutral colour palettes and modest clothing that covers and conceals. No brightly coloured hair, only “clean girl” aesthetics and slick-backed buns. Very demure.
This is mirrored on social media too. “Get Ready With Me” videos have shifted away from people showing off fun, whimsical outfits of self-expression to what can only be described as “corporate chic”. All the clothing hacks are about turning outfits you would wear to the club into appropriate office wear. All the makeup tutorials are neutral and subtle. Fashion has shifted from the bright, indie palettes of 2020 and 2021 to “office siren”. Even our dress sense is centred around work and trying to survive among rising prices. Trendy colours are chosen to compliment as many outfit variations as possible, which is reflected in Pantone’s decision to name “Mocha Mousse” as their colour of the year. Aesthetics are geared towards “quiet luxury” – in essence, how to look like you are rich without breaking the bank. This marks a strong shift away from the mid 2010s where money meant branding. You couldn’t turn your head without seeing a Guess shirt or a Gucci belt, but now, logos are seen as tacky.
Does it stop at skirt length though? Numerous other theories have begun to arise – lipstick sells better when money is tight, bag sizes increase in an economic downturn, blazers becoming trendy casual wear indicates financial strain, men’s underwear sales drop first when the economy crumbles. Fashion economists are divided on the validity of some of these claims, though some of them do hold water. A data analysis on Google searches over the last 20 years showed a significant relationship between blazers and consumer confidence, with bags and lipsticks demonstrating a similar correlation but to a lesser extent. Whether this is intentional or simply coincidental is unclear, especially as the world gets more complex, but fashion designers certainly seem to keep an eye on this data and display what the consumer wants to see on the runway.
The crux of the matter is this: social media says we’re in a recession, so we must be in one. The data, however, seems to be more inconclusive. Whether hemlines really do indicate hard times or if trends are as cyclical as the financial state of the world really remains to be seen. Just in case though, it is worth holding on to your flannel from 2014 – it might just be christened the next recession indicator.
